Is Nintendo going to announce a "Bundle" instead of Switch Successor?

There has been a lot of chatter as of late as to the imminent unveiling of Nintendo's next-generation device that most of dubbed with the moniker of "Switch 2." At this time, Nintendo has not given us a name or even a code-name for the Switch successor other than just that. "Switch successor." There are a few things that I want to discuss. First off, a post made by Billbil-kun on dealabs.com states that Nintendo will soon announce a new bundle for the OLED Nintendo Switch which would pack-in Super Mario Wonder. Credit: Billbil-kun https://x.com/billbil_kun/status/1831963584404013314 More than likely if true, this bundle would be available for the Holiday rush. Billbil-kun also goes on to say that this bundle is the "announcement" that Nintendo is preparing for in September and NOT the reveal of their Switch successor.

Now, this is entirely possible, and I want to go on record that I'm not saying this WON'T be the case, but while I agree that another Holiday bundle is probable from Nintendo because it's kind of a standard practice with them almost every year, I do have some push back on this. While these claims cannot be confirmed, the part where I break company on this is the whole "instead of" aspect. Billbil-kun is suggesting that "instead of" an announcement for the Switch successor, we will get an announcement for the OLED Super Mario Wonder Switch bundle. First of all, there is no reason why Nintendo cannot do both. One has nothing to do with the other, and I'll explain why. Some people tend to think that if you announce the Switch successor too soon, that will greatly impede if not kill the sales of the incumbent product. Historically, that is incorrect. Many people erroneously refer to the "Osborne Effect" in these types of cases. That principle does not apply here and people that try to use this did not properly research just exactly happened with the Osborne. In Laymen's terms, the Switch has far exceeded what Nintendo could have ever hoped or even dreamed with this hardware. Plus, they gave a market-cap of 13 trillion YEN which exchanges currently to 91 billion US dollars with 14 billion cash-on-hand. In short, they are in no danger of bankruptcy which is what ultimately doomed the Osborne company. To add to that, historically, consoles that have been this successful have continued to have consistent sales into the next-generation. Currently, the PlayStation 4 at 117 million units is still selling, while at an infinitesimal rate. However, because of the chip shortages a few years ago for the PlayStation 5 and XBOX Series family, it was still selling pretty well. While we are on the subject of the PlayStation, let's look at the best example. The PlayStation 2. That console launched in the year 2000, and did not cease production until January of 2013 which was only 9 months away from the PlayStation 4. The PS2 stayed on the market for two complete console generations having inferior tech compared to all three major consoles each generation. Only the Sega Dreamcast was less powerful, but we know what happened to that. Furthermore, the PS2 sold more than the GameCube and Wii combined and respectively sold more than the XBOX and XBOX 360 combined. The point is that the announcement of the Switch Successor is not going to hurt sales of the current Switch that much, if at all. Consumers already know that the Switch successor is coming. It's not like it's a surprise. Knowing "when" it is coming is not going to stop someone from buying a Switch bundle or a Switch period that already had their mind made up to buy one at this point going into it's eighth-year or being on the market. It's not like back in 1983 when you didn't have internet and social media and you got your news from the TV, radio, tech magazines and newspapers. You weren't privy to every single development by a company, or could easily track their activities. Outside of special circumstances, we all learned about new tech at the same time. There also is no advantage for Nintendo to basically carpet-bomb us with Nintendo Directs in late August with 3 of them within the span of two weeks (which is something they have NEVER done before,) just to have a Nintendo Direct discussing a bundle, which as I stated earlier is something they do almost every year. Do I think there will be a Super Mario Wonder OLED Switch bundle announced soon? Possibly. Probably.

Do I think it necessarily has to happen in September? No. Business-wise, it doesn't make a lot of sense to announce it so far away from Black Friday. You've already announced all the games coming to the Switch this year. What else would you have to announce FOR Black Friday if you announce the bundle now? It doesn't make since to have put any effort into anymore MAJOR 1st-party IPs just to put them on a console on it's way out the door. Those games should be on the Switch Successor whether it be a new Zelda, F-Zero, StarFox, or even remakes of previous first party gems. Save that for the Switch successor. Do I think it will be "instead of" rather than "in addition to" a teaser-trailer for the Switch successor? NO.

Died a hero, became the villain....

So, it was announced at the San Diego Comic-Con that Robert Downey Jr. will make his long-awaited return to the Marvel Cinematic Universe as........... Dr. Doom? Huh?? That was the sentiment of MANY people online. Like, wha?....Really?? Why Him? I mean, Cillian Murphy is out there and while I'm not a fan of actors playing major characters in multiple comic universes (Cillian Murphy played Jonathan Crane a.k.a The Scarecrow in Christopher Nolan's Batman Trilogy,) that was more than 15 years ago so it's not that bad. This, however is far worse. Iron-Man was the foundation of the MCU. Robert Downey Jr. is as synonymous with Iron-Man as Christopher Reeve was and still is as Superman. Imagine, if Tim Burton had hired Christopher Reeve to play Owl-Man in Batman Returns? That would have been cool on paper, but you just can't un-see Chris Reeve as Superman. It's like God literally created him TO be Superman. Likewise, you cannot un-see RDJ as Tony Stark. We all understand that RDJ in every role he's in these days prints money, but on the surface this move feels really desperate. NOW. IF this "particular" Dr. Doom is actually a variant of Tony Stark that went down a dark-path and became Dr. Doom, I can buy that. Again, TOTALLY unnecessary to do it this way, but I can least see that as "plausible."

When you think of Tony's mindset in Avengers: Age Of Ultron and how even though he knew the consequences of his actions, he just plowed right on ahead with the creation of Ultron much to the consternation of everyone because in HIS mind HE felt that HE knew best for the world. That literally is the genesis point for every major super-villain arc. At least the GOOD ones anyway. They always feel like what they are doing is for the "greater-good" so to speak.

I've heard people say that they should have just made him "Superior Iron-Man" which is definitely canon in the comic books, but Ultron kind of already checked that box. It's possible that maybe they don't want to cheapen the legacy of the original Tony Stark by just bringing back another variant of him. At the time of this post, there are far more questions than answers. One question is why is this movie being called Avengers: Doomsday when this movie clearly is centered on the Fantastic Four? I know that they have a movie coming out the predates this one. Maybe they fight Dr. Doom in the first film and it ends in a stalemate or a LOSS, which is why other MCU characters will have to get involved to stop Dr. Doom in this film? I don't know. It just seems very disjointed and disorganized. Even with the original MCU, while we didn't know what was coming next, what we were given made sense. Nothing that they announced or were planning felt off track. I guess we will have to wait and see how this plays out, but as of right now, I don't know about this.

Will the next Nintendo Console flop?

Based on the trend of home consoles released by Nintendo since 2001, they actually are due for a stinker.

GameCube - 21 million units sold.

Wii - 101 million units sold.

Wii U - 13 million units sold.

Switch - 140 million unit sold and counting.

So, based on these numbers, Nintendo could be in trouble. Now, it is fair to mention that it is incredibility difficult to maintain momentum from one generation to the next. The NES was very success selling over 61 million units which at the time was the most any game console had sold. However, with the next three home consoles, Nintendo would lose on average of 13-14 million units in console sales per lifecycle. Their handheld division however has been constantly strong. The weakest numbers they have seen there were for the 3DS at 75 million units sold, but that is still a great number. This is one of many reasons why Nintendo chose to go hybrid.

This is also why in my opinion, the next Nintendo console will NOT just be a more powerful Switch. There is going to be a gimmick involved, so get ready for it. The only time Nintendo followed up one home console with just a more powerful version of the predecessor was the SNES. That was almost 35 years ago. Every console since has had a gimmick of varying levels and/or was vastly different from the predecessor.

Everyone does not NEED a more powerful Switch because you already have more powerful hybrids out there. Some of which can be jury rigged to play Switch games digitally. Not even every Nintendo fan NEEDS a more powerful Switch because the vast majority of that 140+ million install base are casuals who could care less about graphics and performance. All they care about it the portability. Just like the vast majority of the Wii install base could care less about those outdated graphics and lack of HD. They just cared about motion control. Just like the vast majority of the DS install base only cared about the touch screen. The gimmicks bring in the casuals, and the casuals bring in the dough.

A lot of people WANT a more powerful Switch, but unless Nintendo is prepared to make you spend a lot of money, the increase in power will not be much and the system will age pretty fast. In two years, the next Nintendo console will look as antiquated to the newer crop of hybrids on the way as the current Switch does to the ones on the market now. This is why the next console WILL have a gimmick. I encourage you to research the story on how the Wii came to fruition and why they made the decisions that they did. It will tell you everything you need to know about Nintendo's business strategy. Do I think the next Nintendo console will fail? No. Do I think it will come anywhere close to the Switch in terms of sales and market impact? No. Do I think it will be successful? Yes. While it won't match up in terms of horsepower to the other devices, it will be powerful "enough" to where 1st-party Nintendo games will finally have that "next-gen" look to them. The cost of hyper-realism is not paying off for developers anymore. Development time is too long, and the cost is to big. Not only for one big-budget, AAA game itself, but all the time, money, and resources that are not available for other games. Even Nintendo President Shuntaro Furukawa has addressed that cost of game development is going up across the board. Even for Nintendo which is not known from pushing graphics since the GameCube era, development costs are getting bigger.

Nintendo in my best estimation is not ready to invest in releasing a console that is "realistically" competitive with the PS5 or XSX in terms of horsepower, or even some of the higher-end hybrid consoles like the ROG Ally, Ayaneo 2, and Legion Go. I cannot imagine Nintendo ever releasing a console for more than $399 and to even come close to knocking on the back door in terms of performance of the aforementioned hardware, Nintendo would need to price their device beyond $399. They are going to want it to be cheap. They are going to need it to be cheap.

The point is that the next Nintendo console will have better looking and performing games, but on it's own a power increase will not be enough to re-engage casuals that got bored with the Switch and moved onto other things. There will have to be a new gimmick along side of the new console to get people excited again. I think I already know what it is.