Will the next Nintendo Console flop?

Based on the trend of home consoles released by Nintendo since 2001, they actually are due for a stinker.

GameCube - 21 million units sold.

Wii - 101 million units sold.

Wii U - 13 million units sold.

Switch - 140 million unit sold and counting.

So, based on these numbers, Nintendo could be in trouble. Now, it is fair to mention that it is incredibility difficult to maintain momentum from one generation to the next. The NES was very success selling over 61 million units which at the time was the most any game console had sold. However, with the next three home consoles, Nintendo would lose on average of 13-14 million units in console sales per lifecycle. Their handheld division however has been constantly strong. The weakest numbers they have seen there were for the 3DS at 75 million units sold, but that is still a great number. This is one of many reasons why Nintendo chose to go hybrid.

This is also why in my opinion, the next Nintendo console will NOT just be a more powerful Switch. There is going to be a gimmick involved, so get ready for it. The only time Nintendo followed up one home console with just a more powerful version of the predecessor was the SNES. That was almost 35 years ago. Every console since has had a gimmick of varying levels and/or was vastly different from the predecessor.

Everyone does not NEED a more powerful Switch because you already have more powerful hybrids out there. Some of which can be jury rigged to play Switch games digitally. Not even every Nintendo fan NEEDS a more powerful Switch because the vast majority of that 140+ million install base are casuals who could care less about graphics and performance. All they care about it the portability. Just like the vast majority of the Wii install base could care less about those outdated graphics and lack of HD. They just cared about motion control. Just like the vast majority of the DS install base only cared about the touch screen. The gimmicks bring in the casuals, and the casuals bring in the dough.

A lot of people WANT a more powerful Switch, but unless Nintendo is prepared to make you spend a lot of money, the increase in power will not be much and the system will age pretty fast. In two years, the next Nintendo console will look as antiquated to the newer crop of hybrids on the way as the current Switch does to the ones on the market now. This is why the next console WILL have a gimmick. I encourage you to research the story on how the Wii came to fruition and why they made the decisions that they did. It will tell you everything you need to know about Nintendo's business strategy. Do I think the next Nintendo console will fail? No. Do I think it will come anywhere close to the Switch in terms of sales and market impact? No. Do I think it will be successful? Yes. While it won't match up in terms of horsepower to the other devices, it will be powerful "enough" to where 1st-party Nintendo games will finally have that "next-gen" look to them. The cost of hyper-realism is not paying off for developers anymore. Development time is too long, and the cost is to big. Not only for one big-budget, AAA game itself, but all the time, money, and resources that are not available for other games. Even Nintendo President Shuntaro Furukawa has addressed that cost of game development is going up across the board. Even for Nintendo which is not known from pushing graphics since the GameCube era, development costs are getting bigger.

Nintendo in my best estimation is not ready to invest in releasing a console that is "realistically" competitive with the PS5 or XSX in terms of horsepower, or even some of the higher-end hybrid consoles like the ROG Ally, Ayaneo 2, and Legion Go. I cannot imagine Nintendo ever releasing a console for more than $399 and to even come close to knocking on the back door in terms of performance of the aforementioned hardware, Nintendo would need to price their device beyond $399. They are going to want it to be cheap. They are going to need it to be cheap.

The point is that the next Nintendo console will have better looking and performing games, but on it's own a power increase will not be enough to re-engage casuals that got bored with the Switch and moved onto other things. There will have to be a new gimmick along side of the new console to get people excited again. I think I already know what it is.