I keep hearing a lot of Nintendo fans saying that they expect Nintendo to announce a new 3D Mario soon for the Nintendo Switch 2. I don't necessarily agree that would be a good decision for a great many reasons.Part of the logic on why they believe this is based on the fact that the last "major" 3D Mario game (Super Mario Odyssey) was released 8 years ago for the Nintendo Switch.Okay, that follows. I mean, it's been 8 years, right? That's actually longer than a typical Nintendo console generation itself which is around 5-7 years. So, it is not exactly off base to be expecting one soon, or at least an announcement of one. It's understandable.However, I do feel that announcing a 3D Mario at this particular point in time would be a mistake.One major reason is...Donkey Kong Bananza.Whether people want to accept this or not, despite the Mario universe being spun out of Donkey Kong, he is NOT on Mario's level. AT ALL. People are certainly enjoying Donkey Kong Bananza no doubt, but it's not exactly a game-changer. I don't see hordes of people going out to buy the Switch 2 specifically for THAT game. Hordes of people are buying the Switch 2 because....it's the Switch 2. Right now the Switch 2 is it's own "killer-app."Donkey Kong Bananza played a huge part in my decision personally to buy a Switch 2, but that's just me. Most people I would surmise were expecting a 3D Mario at launch for the Switch 2 before it was revealed that Donkey Kong Bananza was in that spot. People were certainly pleasantly surprised to get a new 3D Donkey Kong game because we haven't seen one proper since 1999 (more on that later,) but if I were to take a poll of Nintendo fans and non-Nintendo fans alike on what their choice would be between the two of them, I think I can go to the bank with most people choosing a 3D Mario over a 3D Donkey Kong.I say all that to say this. If you announce a 3D Mario game now.....that is going to negatively affect sales for Donkey Kong Bananza. Especially if the game is coming within the next six months. Now, if the game is WAAAAAAAAY off in the future like 2027, then I think it wouldn't affect it much. I think Nintendo is smart enough to understand not to put a "major" Mario game up against a "major"Donkey Kong game. History supports this hypothesis.**Disclaimer** This list excludes remasters, ports, rhythm-based games or racing games. This is only for first-run, major 2D and 3D platformers style games. Super Mario World (1991)Donkey Kong Country (1994)Super Mario 64 (1996)Donkey Kong 64 (1999)Super Mario Galaxy (2007)Donkey Kong Country Returns (2010)Super Mario 3D World (2013)Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze (2014)So, only once has Nintendo released a "major" Donkey Kong within a year of a "major" Mario game and in every case, the Mario game came FIRST. I just think that it would be a mistake to even announce a new 3D Mario right now. I'm not saying that they won't. I'm just saying it's not a good idea for Donkey Kong Bananza's sake if they want those sales to remain strong in my opinion.I mean, just be honest with yourself. Regardless on how you feel about Donkey Kong Bananza pro or con, if you haven't bought that game yet and if Nintendo were to show us footage of a brand-new 3D Mario game built from the ground up on Switch 2 hardware and the game was less than 6 months away, which game would YOU be getting, or be getting first? I'm just sayin'.
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